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Post by spanks79 on Mar 4, 2012 20:19:45 GMT -5
My buddy and I were talking over the weekend about how rare 74-75 Monacos have become. How many do you think are still out there on the roads? How many are Bluesmobiles?
My guess is less than 1000 are still in existence, less than 500 are roadworthy. As far as 74 sedans could be as low as a couple hundred.
What do you think?
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Post by tk826 on Mar 5, 2012 6:18:25 GMT -5
I can give you numbers for the 1974 model year.
Not including station wagons, or two door models, in 1974 there were 41,944 (4dr) Monaco's built.
25,710 Sedans. 16,234 Hardtops.
The last report by the NHTSA on car survivability rates was published in 2006 and uses the same mathematical formula developed in 1993.
It's a lengthy formula that takes into account miles driven per model year, accident rates, estimated miles driven in the lifetime of cars from previous years, increased fuel economy standards... etc.
The result of those calculations comes to a conclusion that cars 25 years old (which is as far back the NHTSA calculation charts go), is 2.27%.
Using that statistic, there are currently 952, four door 1974 dodge Monaco's in existence today.
* But you must also consider the fact that the NHTSA tables only go back 25 years. After that the math gets a little complicated as the percentage rate of decline gets smaller and smaller, on a sliding scale, as the years progress.
- The reason for this is that if the rate of decline remained constant, the formula would suggest that no cars, at about 27 years or older, even exist anymore. Because we all know there are in fact cars that old, the percentage of decline gets smaller and smaller.
I did however do the math, while continuing the same sliding rate of decline (year by year), and came to the conclusion that there are currently 940.16 - 1974 (4dr) Dodge Monaco's in existence today.
576.3 Sedans and 363.8 Hardtops.
* The figures also show that we lost 0.47 four doors last year, and will loose another .47 this year. We'll loose 0.37 next year and the year after that... and so on, until the numbers get into the multiple decimal places.
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Post by spanks79 on Mar 5, 2012 7:32:10 GMT -5
Wow, I didn't know there was an actual calculation to figure the demise vehicle models. However if the math is right my guess is pretty close.
I wonder if NHTSA has a corection factor for wecrash.com?
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Post by tk826 on Mar 5, 2012 12:42:55 GMT -5
sigmfsk has just pointed out that the written statistics may likely be a bit higher: bluesmobiles.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=brochure&thread=628&page=1At the same time, I agree that the derbies have knocked the Monaco numbers down at a faster rate than other makes of cars. And... I currently have records of (76) 1974 Bluesmobiles, worldwide. That number does not include CHP and other police replicas, nor does it include later models, or those converted into '74's. The plural of derby is derbies.
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Post by sigmfsk on Mar 5, 2012 17:54:41 GMT -5
That's cool about the demise calculator!
As compared to a baseline calculation, I'd think the extra desirability of a Monaco to be derbied (and destroyed) would be more than offset by the extra desirability of a Monaco to be blumod (and saved).
Cars that are derby'd seem to be cars past their regular end of life, at which point they'd be destroyed anyway. It's not like there are 20,000 pristine monacos around and they're being pulled off the streets for the derby.
But I really don't know. I wonder if there are any statistics of the number of adds on e-bay per year for a certain type of car as compared to the number of cars of that type on the road.
your friend in calculators, arthur
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Post by jrex on Oct 13, 2012 21:05:55 GMT -5
being a derby driver I will chime in , although most derby guys including myself have a brain and only derby cars that need to be derbied as you said, some take pride in and have the money to destroy clean drivers regardless of make and model. win or loose they just don't care and the cleaner the car the better it usually does better for this purpose and all the less patching u need to do.
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Post by Ghostbluesman (Ghostsoldier) on Oct 26, 2012 10:04:40 GMT -5
There used to be a company here in the U.S. a few years back, that would troll all the DMV listings here in the states, and let you know (for a small fee) how many of your vehicle were still licensed and tagged in the whole country.... Rob
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Post by sigmfsk on Oct 26, 2012 12:23:30 GMT -5
There used to be a company here in the U.S. a few years back, that would troll all the DMV listings here in the states, and let you know (for a small fee) how many of your vehicle were still licensed and tagged in the whole country.... Rob www.polk.com/I ordered the data from them for 74-77 c-body Monacos, hoping that it would shed some light on things. All I got was aggravation, as the data was erroneous and internally inconsistent. 74 is the earliest they go. I suppose they don't get much call for data that old, so it's not worth them improving their parsing ability on it. your friend in giving things a try sometimes, arthur
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Post by Ghostbluesman (Ghostsoldier) on Oct 26, 2012 17:00:37 GMT -5
If I can find the name of the siite, I'll report back here; I used them a few years ago to see how many of my model '57 Plymouth Savoys were still on the road... Rob
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Post by sigmfsk on Oct 26, 2012 17:22:08 GMT -5
If I can find the name of the siite, I'll report back here; I used them a few years ago to see how many of my model '57 Plymouth Savoys were still on the road... Rob Oooohh! You're saying that there's another site, that goes back to at least 57. Wowsers; another lead! Great news, thanks.
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Post by Ghostbluesman (Ghostsoldier) on Oct 26, 2012 17:41:31 GMT -5
Found it! Here's the service I used, way back when:
Automotive Information Clearinghouse PO Box 1746, La Mesa, CA 91944 Phone: (619) 447-7200
I'm not sure if they are still in business; it was longer back than I realized (try 15 years, lol!)
They have a registered domain, just no website, and the BBB has them listed current, also.
Rob
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